AVS is a cloud-based forecasting platform accessible via any standard browser. It provides a quick and easy way to forecast values for large volumes of vehicles (used or new) as at ‘today’ or any future date. It is data supplier independent and has the potential to be deployed in any country where valuation data is available (either 3rd party data i.e. CAP, Glass’s etc or you can also use your own disposal / re-marketing data).
Suitable for any business with significant exposure to changing vehicle values AVS automates, controls, and audits the whole process of forecasting vehicle values and provides multiple calculation options:
1) Industry forecast values as published by the data supplier, CAP, Glass’s, RedBook etc
- Used Future Forecast Values (i.e. CAP Used Monitor)
- New Future Forecast Values (i.e. CAP New Monitor)
- Current Forecast Values (i.e. CAP Black Book)
2) Industry forecast values overlayed with Customer defined adjustments
- Used Future Forecast Values +/- adjustments
- New Future Forecast Values +/- adjustments
- Current Forecast Values +/- adjustments
3) AVS’s own (Used and New) Future Forecast calculation model
- Step 1 - Today’s value of the vehicle BUT at the age and mileage it will be in the future (i.e. the end of contract age / mileage). This is built using depreciation curves generated dynamically during the calculation from the Current Forecast Values (i.e. CAP Black Book)
- Step 2 - The step 1 value overlayed with Customer defined adjustments (i.e. Covid run out, economic outlook, model life cycle etc) reflecting what is thought may happen between now and the future forecast date.
- RISK MANAGEMENT - Monitor previously forecast RVs, PCP contracts, buybacks etc against latest re-forecast.
- PROVISIONING – Regularly re-forecast the anticipated end of finance term RV surplus / loss position.
- REMARKETING – Value vehicles coming towards end of term as input to disposal / de-fleet activities.
- CAPITAL REPORTING – Re-value the whole vehicle fleet whenever required.
- FLEET AQUISITIONS - Quickly value potential vehicle portfolio acquisitions.
- CUSTOMER RETENTION – Forecast customer equity to support retention / loyalty programmes.
- FINANCE/RV MODELING - Forecast new vehicle RVs at different terms and mileages as input to finance pricing models or to cross compare/validate quoted RVs.
- Uses market valuation data (e.g. CAP, Glass’s, RedBook etc) as required (and sourced) by the customer
- Accepts customer vehicle data / fleet extracts in virtually any format (using customer-controlled settings)
- If customer vehicle data is not already encoded with standard vehicle codes, AVS has a powerful code matching facility
- Mileage/Kms calculations can be based on contractual miles, actual speedometer data or input averages
- Future valuation dates can be varied to cater for different end of contract arrangements
- Multiple customer adjustment factors can be combined and applied to model different market scenarios
- Instantly compares forecast value to contracted value and reports £/% variances
- Includes a flexible analyser tool with user driven cut/slice, drill down features and graphical output
- Forecasts can be integrated within customer systems via AVS API’s
AVS In Overview
Central to AVS is the handling of multiple different sets of ‘market valuation data’ (i.e. CAP, Glass’s, RedBook etc) giving the potential to compare/contrast different data providers views on vehicle values quickly and easily.
Valuation data varies by data provider, some only offer current values while others offer current, used future and new future values. AVS can utilise whatever data is available.
Forecast valuations can be optionally ‘adjusted’ by user defined adjustment factors (and based on vehicle characteristics, i.e. model/fuel/body etc). Factors can also be grouped together so easily allowing different scenarios (i.e. market crash/boom, a manufacturer crisis, etc) to be processed and analysed.
AVS also supports you building your own forecast values starting from a current used value BUT not as the car is today, rather the same car but at the age/mileage it will be at the end of the contract. This is quite straight forward where a model/derivative has been around a long time and the used valuation data is available for that target plate. Where it has not, we build a ‘basket’ of similar vehicles (and the user controls the definition of similar) and use the basket average depreciation percentages over the missing plate periods to move from the last available data for the actual car to the valuation target plate. Then using the user defined adjustment tables, you can model different scenarios of the time between now and the date in the future you want a valuation. Hence you can develop your own forecasting models, independent to any 3rd party’s view of what might happen in the future.
AVS has its own ad hoc analysis capability allowing you to cut/slice/drill down in pretty much any way you want and instantly see graphical results (which can be exported / saved).
AVS is already proven with Portfolios of several hundred thousand vehicles.